Scenario Building

(Adapted from MORIARITY et al. 2005)

A scenario can be regarded as a story about the way the world might turn out tomorrow. Because there are numerous possibilities how the situation can be in the future, a scenario cannot be considered as a specific forecast of the future, as this is often the case in terms of water management. It is more a plausible description of what might happen (a vision, in contrast, is a desired future state – see also visioning). Such a description needs an extended analysis of current and historic trends and events in order to develop a realistic prediction. Therefore, when scenario building is used as an aid to strategising, it should focus on the main issues covered by the vision. Such main issues could be resource availability, condition of infrastructure and social demand concerning water management.

The process of scenario building should raise awareness (see PPT) of uncertainties, risks and constraints which could be encountered in the future. Examples for such constraints and risks could be illegal water use, old water network, high costs and many more issues (MORIARTY et al. 2005). The awareness of such factors helps to improve strategy development because scenario building allows switching mindsets from only one possible future towards thinking about a number of possible alternatives. Scenario building can also be used to develop strategies which are based on scenarios to reach a vision (MORIARTY et al. 2005). The stakeholders who take part in scenario building should build up to four or five scenarios. Each of those scenarios should be plausible, internally consistent and based on good quality information.

Scenario building involves preparatory work including vision development, stakeholder workshops and post-workshop activities (see also stakeholder analysis starting by stakeholder identification factsheet). Scenarios are built up by using a matrix. This matrix contains factors which are beyond the control of planners (external factors). External factors are used to develop scenarios. Factors that are within the control of planners (internal factors) can be applied to develop strategies (MORIARTY et al. 2005). The relevant steps to perform a scenario building session are:

• Step 1: A brainstorming should be conducted to identify all internal and external factors that will affect achieving the vision. After the brainstorming, a discussion should be launched in order to separate internal factors from external factors. A thorough understanding of the status of water resources and water supply as well as an understanding of location and severity of local water problems is essential, since it simplifies the identification of such external and internal factors (MORIARTY et al. 2005).
• Step 2: The next step consists of classifying the factors as it is shown in the figure. The factors in the upper-right quadrant which are labelled as the most important and most uncertain factors are used to differentiate between possible futures described by the narrative scenario. A reduction of these key factors to two or three factors helps to keep the number of possible scenarios low.
• Step 3: The identification of different future states for each factor is the next stage. The results have to be combined in order to come with the main storylines of different scenarios. The less uncertain or less important factors in the other three quadrants can be used to develop a “background story” that is shared by all the scenarios. Another discussion should be started which includes the classification of the scenarios as high or low probability.
• Step 4: Write down a series of narrative scenarios in which the factors from quadrant one of the chart provide a common background story to a set of diverging possible futures described by those factors in quadrant two. Depending on the length and detail of the scenarios being developed, factors from quadrants three and four can be included or left out of the write-up.

After the different scenarios have been written down, strategies are developed to meet the vision. Sometimes it is necessary to refine the vision since visions, being desired states, tend to be unrealistic. There is often a broad nature of scenarios, so that multiple strategies can lead to the vision. Once the numerous lines of visions, scenarios and strategies have been developed, they are assessed by specialists using analytical or modelling techniques with the aim of assessing the internal logic of the strategy and likelihood of it achieving the vision. The outcomes of this analysis are reported back to stakeholders leading to subsequent iterations.